If SAC visited DAL today, our model would lean Dallas Mavericks with a 58.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -1.9 points for DAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.6

Net Rating

-1.3

115.9

Offensive Rating

113.7

115.3

Defensive Rating

115.0

98.9

Pace

100.2

SAC (Away) DAL (Home)

Recent Form

SAC 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.2

L POR

W GSW

L GSW

L LAC

W NOP

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

Head-to-Head History

DAL wins

SAC wins

2026-02-26 SAC 130 @ DAL 121 SAC W

2026-01-06 SAC 100 @ DAL 98 SAC W

2025-12-27 SAC 107 @ DAL 113 DAL W

2025-03-03 SAC 122 @ DAL 98 SAC W

2025-02-10 SAC 129 @ DAL 128 SAC W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 58.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score