If SAC visited CHI today, our model would lean Chicago Bulls with a 61.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -2.2 points for CHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.6

Net Rating

-1.6

115.9

Offensive Rating

113.2

115.3

Defensive Rating

114.8

98.9

Pace

103.6

SAC (Away) CHI (Home)

Recent Form

SAC 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.2

L POR

W GSW

L GSW

L LAC

W NOP

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

Head-to-Head History

CHI wins

SAC wins

2026-03-08 SAC 110 @ CHI 126 CHI W

2025-10-29 SAC 113 @ CHI 126 CHI W

2025-03-20 SAC 128 @ CHI 116 SAC W

2025-01-12 SAC 124 @ CHI 119 SAC W

2024-03-04 SAC 113 @ CHI 109 SAC W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score