If POR visited WAS today, our model would lean Portland Trail Blazers with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -9.5 points for WAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.7

Net Rating

-12.2

111.0

Offensive Rating

105.8

113.7

Defensive Rating

118.0

99.5

Pace

101.8

POR (Away) WAS (Home)

Recent Form

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

Head-to-Head History

WAS wins

POR wins

2026-03-29 POR 88 @ WAS 123 WAS W

2026-01-27 POR 111 @ WAS 115 WAS W

2025-03-17 POR 97 @ WAS 112 WAS W

2025-02-26 POR 129 @ WAS 121 POR W

2024-04-05 POR 108 @ WAS 102 POR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score