If POR visited TOR today, our model would lean Toronto Raptors with a 65.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -1.4 points for TOR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.7

Net Rating

-4.1

111.0

Offensive Rating

109.6

113.7

Defensive Rating

113.6

99.5

Pace

100.6

POR (Away) TOR (Home)

Recent Form

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

Head-to-Head History

TOR wins

POR wins

2026-01-23 POR 110 @ TOR 98 POR W

2025-12-02 POR 118 @ TOR 121 TOR W

2025-04-03 POR 112 @ TOR 103 POR W

2025-03-16 POR 102 @ TOR 105 TOR W

2024-03-09 POR 118 @ TOR 128 TOR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score