If POR visited SAS today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 83.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -0.1 points for SAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.7

Net Rating

-2.8

111.0

Offensive Rating

113.5

113.7

Defensive Rating

116.3

99.5

Pace

100.1

POR (Away) SAS (Home)

Recent Form

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

SAS 74-26 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.6

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

L OKC

Head-to-Head History

SAS wins

POR wins

2026-04-28 POR 95 @ SAS 114 SAS W

2026-04-26 POR 114 @ SAS 93 POR W

2026-04-24 POR 120 @ SAS 108 POR W

2026-04-21 POR 106 @ SAS 103 POR W

2026-04-19 POR 98 @ SAS 111 SAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

68.1%

All Games

1358 tracked

75.7%

High Conf.

>65% picks

76.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 83.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.7% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score