If POR visited SAC today, our model would lean Portland Trail Blazers with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +3.3 points for SAC at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.7

Net Rating

0.6

111.0

Offensive Rating

115.9

113.7

Defensive Rating

115.3

99.5

Pace

98.9

POR (Away) SAC (Home)

Recent Form

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

SAC 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.2

L POR

W GSW

L GSW

L LAC

W NOP

Head-to-Head History

SAC wins

POR wins

2026-04-12 POR 110 @ SAC 122 SAC W

2026-01-18 POR 117 @ SAC 110 POR W

2025-12-20 POR 98 @ SAC 93 POR W

2025-12-18 POR 133 @ SAC 134 SAC W

2025-03-27 POR 107 @ SAC 128 SAC W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score