If POR visited PHI today, our model would lean Philadelphia 76ers with a 66.1% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -3.6 points for PHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.7

Net Rating

-6.3

111.0

Offensive Rating

111.0

113.7

Defensive Rating

117.3

99.5

Pace

98.1

POR (Away) PHI (Home)

Recent Form

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

Head-to-Head History

PHI wins

POR wins

2026-03-15 POR 103 @ PHI 109 PHI W

2026-02-09 POR 118 @ PHI 135 PHI W

2025-03-03 POR 119 @ PHI 102 POR W

2024-12-30 POR 125 @ PHI 103 POR W

2024-01-29 POR 104 @ PHI 130 PHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 66.1% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score