If POR visited ORL today, our model would lean Orlando Magic with a 51.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +2.5 points for ORL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.7

Net Rating

-0.2

111.0

Offensive Rating

108.9

113.7

Defensive Rating

109.1

99.5

Pace

96.5

POR (Away) ORL (Home)

Recent Form

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

Head-to-Head History

ORL wins

POR wins

2025-12-23 POR 110 @ ORL 106 POR W

2025-11-10 POR 112 @ ORL 115 ORL W

2025-01-30 POR 90 @ ORL 119 ORL W

2025-01-23 POR 101 @ ORL 79 POR W

2024-04-01 POR 103 @ ORL 104 ORL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 51.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score