If POR visited NOP today, our model would lean Portland Trail Blazers with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -6.7 points for NOP at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.7

Net Rating

-9.4

111.0

Offensive Rating

109.7

113.7

Defensive Rating

119.1

99.5

Pace

99.8

POR (Away) NOP (Home)

Recent Form

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

Head-to-Head History

NOP wins

POR wins

2026-04-02 POR 106 @ NOP 118 NOP W

2026-01-02 POR 122 @ NOP 109 POR W

2025-12-11 POR 120 @ NOP 143 NOP W

2025-11-12 POR 125 @ NOP 117 POR W

2025-01-08 POR 119 @ NOP 100 POR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score