If POR visited MIN today, our model would lean Minnesota Timberwolves with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +7.7 points for MIN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.7

Net Rating

5.0

111.0

Offensive Rating

115.7

113.7

Defensive Rating

110.8

99.5

Pace

98.0

POR (Away) MIN (Home)

Recent Form

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

MIN 55-39 L2 Avg margin last 5: -19.8

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

MIN wins

POR wins

2026-03-20 POR 108 @ MIN 104 POR W

2026-02-24 POR 124 @ MIN 121 POR W

2026-02-11 POR 109 @ MIN 133 MIN W

2025-10-22 POR 118 @ MIN 114 POR W

2025-02-08 POR 98 @ MIN 114 MIN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score