If POR visited MIL today, our model would lean Portland Trail Blazers with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +5.1 points for MIL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.7

Net Rating

2.4

111.0

Offensive Rating

115.1

113.7

Defensive Rating

112.7

99.5

Pace

99.9

POR (Away) MIL (Home)

Recent Form

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

Head-to-Head History

MIL wins

POR wins

2026-03-25 POR 99 @ MIL 130 MIL W

2025-11-24 POR 115 @ MIL 103 POR W

2025-01-28 POR 112 @ MIL 125 MIL W

2025-01-04 POR 105 @ MIL 102 POR W

2024-01-31 POR 116 @ MIL 119 MIL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score