If POR visited LAL today, our model would lean Los Angeles Lakers with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +3.9 points for LAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.7

Net Rating

1.2

111.0

Offensive Rating

115.0

113.7

Defensive Rating

113.8

99.5

Pace

98.3

POR (Away) LAL (Home)

Recent Form

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

LAL 57-35 L4 Avg margin last 5: -8.8

L OKC

W HOU

Head-to-Head History

LAL wins

POR wins

2026-01-17 POR 116 @ LAL 132 LAL W

2025-11-03 POR 123 @ LAL 115 POR W

2025-10-27 POR 122 @ LAL 108 POR W

2025-04-13 POR 81 @ LAL 109 LAL W

2025-02-20 POR 110 @ LAL 102 POR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score