If POR visited GSW today, our model would lean Portland Trail Blazers with a 63.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +5.9 points for GSW at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.7

Net Rating

3.2

111.0

Offensive Rating

114.2

113.7

Defensive Rating

111.0

99.5

Pace

99.4

POR (Away) GSW (Home)

Recent Form

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

GSW 37-45 L3 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L LAC

L SAC

L LAL

W SAC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

GSW wins

POR wins

2026-01-13 POR 97 @ GSW 119 GSW W

2025-12-14 POR 131 @ GSW 136 GSW W

2025-11-21 POR 127 @ GSW 123 POR W

2025-10-24 POR 119 @ GSW 139 GSW W

2025-04-11 POR 103 @ GSW 86 POR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score