If POR visited CLE today, our model would lean Cleveland Cavaliers with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +11.9 points for CLE at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.7

Net Rating

9.2

111.0

Offensive Rating

121.0

113.7

Defensive Rating

111.8

99.5

Pace

100.3

POR (Away) CLE (Home)

Recent Form

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

Head-to-Head History

CLE wins

POR wins

2026-02-01 POR 130 @ CLE 111 POR W

2025-12-03 POR 122 @ CLE 110 POR W

2025-03-25 POR 122 @ CLE 111 POR W

2025-03-02 POR 129 @ CLE 133 CLE W

2023-11-30 POR 103 @ CLE 95 POR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score