If POR visited CHI today, our model would lean Portland Trail Blazers with a 63.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +1.1 points for CHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.7

Net Rating

-1.6

111.0

Offensive Rating

113.2

113.7

Defensive Rating

114.8

99.5

Pace

103.6

POR (Away) CHI (Home)

Recent Form

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

Head-to-Head History

CHI wins

POR wins

2026-02-26 POR 121 @ CHI 112 POR W

2025-11-19 POR 122 @ CHI 121 POR W

2025-04-04 POR 113 @ CHI 118 CHI W

2025-01-19 POR 102 @ CHI 113 CHI W

2024-03-18 POR 107 @ CHI 110 CHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score