If POR visited CHA today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -6.4 points for CHA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.7

Net Rating

-9.1

111.0

Offensive Rating

106.7

113.7

Defensive Rating

115.7

99.5

Pace

98.2

POR (Away) CHA (Home)

Recent Form

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

Head-to-Head History

CHA wins

POR wins

2026-03-10 POR 103 @ CHA 101 POR W

2026-02-28 POR 93 @ CHA 109 CHA W

2025-02-22 POR 88 @ CHA 141 CHA W

2025-01-24 POR 102 @ CHA 97 POR W

2024-04-03 POR 89 @ CHA 86 POR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score