If POR visited BOS today, our model would lean Boston Celtics with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +12.1 points for BOS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.7

Net Rating

9.4

111.0

Offensive Rating

119.5

113.7

Defensive Rating

110.1

99.5

Pace

96.6

POR (Away) BOS (Home)

Recent Form

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

BOS 59-30 L3 Avg margin last 5: +0.4

L PHI

W PHI

Head-to-Head History

BOS wins

POR wins

2026-01-26 POR 94 @ BOS 102 BOS W

2025-12-28 POR 108 @ BOS 114 BOS W

2025-03-23 POR 129 @ BOS 116 POR W

2025-03-05 POR 118 @ BOS 128 BOS W

2024-04-07 POR 107 @ BOS 124 BOS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score