If POR visited ATL today, our model would lean Atlanta Hawks with a 58.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +1.6 points for ATL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.7

Net Rating

-1.1

111.0

Offensive Rating

113.7

Defensive Rating

114.8

99.5

Pace

103.4

POR (Away) ATL (Home)

Recent Form

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

Head-to-Head History

ATL wins

POR wins

2026-03-01 POR 101 @ ATL 135 ATL W

2026-01-15 POR 101 @ ATL 117 ATL W

2025-04-01 POR 127 @ ATL 113 POR W

2024-11-17 POR 110 @ ATL 114 ATL W

2024-03-27 POR 106 @ ATL 120 ATL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 58.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score