If PHX visited WAS today, our model would lean Phoenix Suns with a 83.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -9.2 points for WAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-3.0

Net Rating

-12.2

114.7

Offensive Rating

105.8

117.7

Defensive Rating

118.0

98.3

Pace

101.8

PHX (Away) WAS (Home)

Recent Form

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

Head-to-Head History

WAS wins

PHX wins

2026-01-11 PHX 93 @ WAS 112 WAS W

2025-12-29 PHX 115 @ WAS 101 PHX W

2025-01-25 PHX 109 @ WAS 119 WAS W

2025-01-16 PHX 130 @ WAS 123 PHX W

2024-02-04 PHX 140 @ WAS 112 PHX W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 83.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score