If PHX visited TOR today, our model would lean Phoenix Suns with a 56.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -1.1 points for TOR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-3.0

Net Rating

-4.1

114.7

Offensive Rating

109.6

117.7

Defensive Rating

113.6

98.3

Pace

100.6

PHX (Away) TOR (Home)

Recent Form

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

Head-to-Head History

TOR wins

PHX wins

2026-03-22 PHX 98 @ TOR 120 TOR W

2026-03-13 PHX 115 @ TOR 122 TOR W

2025-03-17 PHX 89 @ TOR 129 TOR W

2025-02-23 PHX 109 @ TOR 127 TOR W

2024-03-07 PHX 113 @ TOR 120 TOR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 56.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score