If PHX visited SAS today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 82.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +0.2 points for SAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-3.0

Net Rating

-2.8

114.7

Offensive Rating

113.5

117.7

Defensive Rating

116.3

98.3

Pace

100.1

PHX (Away) SAS (Home)

Recent Form

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

SAS 74-26 W2 Avg margin last 5: +5.6

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

L OKC

Head-to-Head History

SAS wins

PHX wins

2026-03-19 PHX 100 @ SAS 101 SAS W

2026-02-19 PHX 94 @ SAS 121 SAS W

2025-11-23 PHX 102 @ SAS 111 SAS W

2025-11-02 PHX 118 @ SAS 130 SAS W

2025-04-11 PHX 98 @ SAS 117 SAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7145 tracked

75.0%

High Conf.

>65% picks

82.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 82.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.0% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score