If PHX visited MIN today, our model would lean Minnesota Timberwolves with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +8.0 points for MIN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-3.0

Net Rating

5.0

114.7

Offensive Rating

115.7

117.7

Defensive Rating

110.8

98.3

Pace

98.0

PHX (Away) MIN (Home)

Recent Form

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

MIN 55-39 L2 Avg margin last 5: -19.8

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

MIN wins

PHX wins

2026-03-17 PHX 104 @ MIN 116 MIN W

2025-12-08 PHX 108 @ MIN 105 PHX W

2025-11-21 PHX 113 @ MIN 114 MIN W

2025-03-28 PHX 109 @ MIN 124 MIN W

2025-03-02 PHX 116 @ MIN 98 PHX W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score