If PHX visited MIL today, our model would lean Phoenix Suns with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +5.4 points for MIL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-3.0

Net Rating

2.4

114.7

Offensive Rating

115.1

117.7

Defensive Rating

112.7

98.3

Pace

99.9

PHX (Away) MIL (Home)

Recent Form

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

Head-to-Head History

MIL wins

PHX wins

2026-03-21 PHX 108 @ MIL 105 PHX W

2026-03-10 PHX 129 @ MIL 114 PHX W

2025-04-01 PHX 123 @ MIL 133 MIL W

2025-03-24 PHX 106 @ MIL 108 MIL W

2024-03-17 PHX 129 @ MIL 140 MIL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score