If PHX visited MEM today, our model would lean Phoenix Suns with a 100.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +7.7 points for MEM at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-3.0

Net Rating

4.7

114.7

Offensive Rating

117.2

117.7

Defensive Rating

112.6

98.3

Pace

103.7

PHX (Away) MEM (Home)

Recent Form

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

MEM 25-57 L8 Avg margin last 5: -25.2

L HOU

L UTA

L DEN

L CLE

L MIL

Head-to-Head History

MEM wins

PHX wins

2026-03-30 PHX 131 @ MEM 105 PHX W

2026-01-07 PHX 117 @ MEM 98 PHX W

2025-10-29 PHX 114 @ MEM 113 PHX W

2025-03-10 PHX 118 @ MEM 120 MEM W

2025-02-25 PHX 148 @ MEM 151 MEM W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 100.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score