If PHX visited LAL today, our model would lean Los Angeles Lakers with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +4.2 points for LAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-3.0

Net Rating

1.2

114.7

Offensive Rating

115.0

117.7

Defensive Rating

113.8

98.3

Pace

98.3

PHX (Away) LAL (Home)

Recent Form

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

LAL 57-35 L4 Avg margin last 5: -8.8

L OKC

W HOU

Head-to-Head History

LAL wins

PHX wins

2026-04-10 PHX 73 @ LAL 101 LAL W

2026-02-26 PHX 110 @ LAL 113 LAL W

2025-12-23 PHX 108 @ LAL 132 LAL W

2025-12-14 PHX 116 @ LAL 114 PHX W

2025-12-01 PHX 125 @ LAL 108 PHX W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score