If PHX visited IND today, our model would lean Indiana Pacers with a 51.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +5.1 points for IND at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-3.0

Net Rating

2.1

114.7

Offensive Rating

115.4

117.7

Defensive Rating

113.3

98.3

Pace

100.8

PHX (Away) IND (Home)

Recent Form

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

Head-to-Head History

IND wins

PHX wins

2026-03-12 PHX 123 @ IND 108 PHX W

2025-11-13 PHX 98 @ IND 133 IND W

2025-01-04 PHX 108 @ IND 126 IND W

2024-12-19 PHX 120 @ IND 111 PHX W

2024-01-26 PHX 131 @ IND 133 IND W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 51.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score