If PHX visited HOU today, our model would lean Houston Rockets with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +7.6 points for HOU at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-3.0

Net Rating

4.6

114.7

Offensive Rating

114.9

117.7

Defensive Rating

110.3

98.3

Pace

99.0

PHX (Away) HOU (Home)

Recent Form

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

Head-to-Head History

HOU wins

PHX wins

2026-04-07 PHX 119 @ HOU 105 PHX W

2026-01-05 PHX 97 @ HOU 100 HOU W

2025-12-05 PHX 98 @ HOU 117 HOU W

2025-11-24 PHX 114 @ HOU 92 PHX W

2025-03-30 PHX 148 @ HOU 109 PHX W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score