If PHX visited DAL today, our model would lean Phoenix Suns with a 57.1% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +1.7 points for DAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-3.0

Net Rating

-1.3

114.7

Offensive Rating

113.7

117.7

Defensive Rating

115.0

98.3

Pace

100.2

PHX (Away) DAL (Home)

Recent Form

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

Head-to-Head History

DAL wins

PHX wins

2026-04-08 PHX 107 @ DAL 112 DAL W

2026-02-10 PHX 111 @ DAL 120 DAL W

2025-11-12 PHX 123 @ DAL 114 PHX W

2025-03-09 PHX 125 @ DAL 116 PHX W

2024-12-27 PHX 98 @ DAL 89 PHX W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 57.1% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score