If PHX visited CHI today, our model would lean Phoenix Suns with a 73.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +1.4 points for CHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-3.0

Net Rating

-1.6

114.7

Offensive Rating

113.2

117.7

Defensive Rating

114.8

98.3

Pace

103.6

PHX (Away) CHI (Home)

Recent Form

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

Head-to-Head History

CHI wins

PHX wins

2026-04-05 PHX 120 @ CHI 110 PHX W

2026-03-05 PHX 105 @ CHI 103 PHX W

2025-03-19 PHX 121 @ CHI 127 CHI W

2025-02-22 PHX 121 @ CHI 117 PHX W

2024-01-22 PHX 113 @ CHI 115 CHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 73.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score