If PHI visited POR today, our model would lean Portland Trail Blazers with a 51.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +3.6 points for POR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-6.3

Net Rating

-2.7

111.0

Offensive Rating

111.0

117.3

Defensive Rating

113.7

98.1

Pace

99.5

PHI (Away) POR (Home)

Recent Form

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

POR wins

PHI wins

2026-03-15 PHI 103 @ POR 109 POR W

2026-02-09 PHI 118 @ POR 135 POR W

2025-03-03 PHI 119 @ POR 102 PHI W

2024-12-30 PHI 125 @ POR 103 PHI W

2024-01-29 PHI 104 @ POR 130 POR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 51.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score