If PHI visited PHX today, our model would lean Phoenix Suns with a 51.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +3.3 points for PHX at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-6.3

Net Rating

-3.0

111.0

Offensive Rating

114.7

117.3

Defensive Rating

117.7

98.1

Pace

98.3

PHI (Away) PHX (Home)

Recent Form

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

PHX wins

PHI wins

2026-02-07 PHI 109 @ PHX 103 PHI W

2026-01-20 PHI 116 @ PHX 110 PHI W

2025-01-06 PHI 109 @ PHX 99 PHI W

2024-11-04 PHI 116 @ PHX 118 PHX W

2024-03-20 PHI 102 @ PHX 115 PHX W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 51.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score