If PHI visited MIN today, our model would lean Philadelphia 76ers with a 56.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +11.3 points for MIN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-6.3

Net Rating

5.0

111.0

Offensive Rating

115.7

117.3

Defensive Rating

110.8

98.1

Pace

98.0

PHI (Away) MIN (Home)

Recent Form

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

MIN 55-39 L2 Avg margin last 5: -19.8

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

MIN wins

PHI wins

2026-04-03 PHI 103 @ MIN 115 MIN W

2026-02-22 PHI 135 @ MIN 108 PHI W

2025-04-05 PHI 114 @ MIN 109 PHI W

2025-03-04 PHI 112 @ MIN 126 MIN W

2023-12-20 PHI 113 @ MIN 127 MIN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 56.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score