If PHI visited MEM today, our model would lean Philadelphia 76ers with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +11.0 points for MEM at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-6.3

Net Rating

4.7

111.0

Offensive Rating

117.2

117.3

Defensive Rating

112.6

98.1

Pace

103.7

PHI (Away) MEM (Home)

Recent Form

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

MEM 25-57 L8 Avg margin last 5: -25.2

L HOU

L UTA

L DEN

L CLE

L MIL

Head-to-Head History

MEM wins

PHI wins

2026-03-10 PHI 129 @ MEM 139 MEM W

2025-12-30 PHI 139 @ MEM 136 PHI W

2024-11-20 PHI 111 @ MEM 117 MEM W

2024-11-02 PHI 124 @ MEM 107 PHI W

2024-04-06 PHI 116 @ MEM 96 PHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score