If PHI visited LAL today, our model would lean Los Angeles Lakers with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +7.5 points for LAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-6.3

Net Rating

1.2

111.0

Offensive Rating

115.0

117.3

Defensive Rating

113.8

98.1

Pace

98.3

PHI (Away) LAL (Home)

Recent Form

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

LAL 57-35 L4 Avg margin last 5: -8.8

L OKC

W HOU

Head-to-Head History

LAL wins

PHI wins

2026-02-05 PHI 115 @ LAL 119 LAL W

2025-12-07 PHI 112 @ LAL 108 PHI W

2025-01-28 PHI 104 @ LAL 118 LAL W

2024-11-08 PHI 106 @ LAL 116 LAL W

2024-03-22 PHI 94 @ LAL 101 LAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score