If PHI visited IND today, our model would lean Philadelphia 76ers with a 56.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +8.4 points for IND at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-6.3

Net Rating

2.1

111.0

Offensive Rating

115.4

117.3

Defensive Rating

113.3

98.1

Pace

100.8

PHI (Away) IND (Home)

Recent Form

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

Head-to-Head History

IND wins

PHI wins

2026-04-10 PHI 105 @ IND 94 PHI W

2026-02-24 PHI 135 @ IND 114 PHI W

2026-01-19 PHI 104 @ IND 113 IND W

2025-12-12 PHI 105 @ IND 115 IND W

2025-03-14 PHI 112 @ IND 100 PHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 56.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score