If PHI visited HOU today, our model would lean Houston Rockets with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +10.9 points for HOU at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-6.3

Net Rating

4.6

111.0

Offensive Rating

114.9

117.3

Defensive Rating

110.3

98.1

Pace

99.0

PHI (Away) HOU (Home)

Recent Form

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

Head-to-Head History

HOU wins

PHI wins

2026-04-09 PHI 102 @ HOU 113 HOU W

2026-01-22 PHI 122 @ HOU 128 HOU W

2025-03-17 PHI 137 @ HOU 144 HOU W

2024-11-27 PHI 122 @ HOU 115 PHI W

2024-01-15 PHI 115 @ HOU 124 HOU W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score