If PHI visited DEN today, our model would lean Denver Nuggets with a 61.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +10.1 points for DEN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-6.3

Net Rating

3.8

111.0

Offensive Rating

118.9

117.3

Defensive Rating

115.1

98.1

Pace

100.7

PHI (Away) DEN (Home)

Recent Form

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

Head-to-Head History

DEN wins

PHI wins

2026-03-17 PHI 96 @ DEN 124 DEN W

2026-01-05 PHI 125 @ DEN 124 PHI W

2025-01-31 PHI 137 @ DEN 134 PHI W

2025-01-21 PHI 109 @ DEN 144 DEN W

2024-01-27 PHI 105 @ DEN 111 DEN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score