If PHI visited CLE today, our model would lean Cleveland Cavaliers with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +15.5 points for CLE at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-6.3

Net Rating

9.2

111.0

Offensive Rating

121.0

117.3

Defensive Rating

111.8

98.1

Pace

100.3

PHI (Away) CLE (Home)

Recent Form

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

Head-to-Head History

CLE wins

PHI wins

2026-03-09 PHI 101 @ CLE 115 CLE W

2026-01-16 PHI 117 @ CLE 115 PHI W

2026-01-14 PHI 133 @ CLE 107 PHI W

2025-11-05 PHI 121 @ CLE 132 CLE W

2025-01-24 PHI 129 @ CLE 132 CLE W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score