If PHI visited CHA today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -2.8 points for CHA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-6.3

Net Rating

-9.1

111.0

Offensive Rating

106.7

117.3

Defensive Rating

115.7

98.1

Pace

98.2

PHI (Away) CHA (Home)

Recent Form

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

Head-to-Head History

CHA wins

PHI wins

2026-03-28 PHI 118 @ CHA 114 PHI W

2026-01-26 PHI 93 @ CHA 130 CHA W

2025-10-25 PHI 121 @ CHA 125 CHA W

2024-12-20 PHI 98 @ CHA 108 CHA W

2024-12-16 PHI 121 @ CHA 108 PHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score