If PHI visited ATL today, our model would lean Atlanta Hawks with a 71.1% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +5.2 points for ATL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-6.3

Net Rating

-1.1

111.0

Offensive Rating

113.7

117.3

Defensive Rating

114.8

98.1

Pace

103.4

PHI (Away) ATL (Home)

Recent Form

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

Head-to-Head History

ATL wins

PHI wins

2026-03-07 PHI 116 @ ATL 125 ATL W

2026-02-19 PHI 117 @ ATL 107 PHI W

2025-12-14 PHI 117 @ ATL 120 ATL W

2025-11-30 PHI 142 @ ATL 134 PHI W

2025-04-11 PHI 124 @ ATL 110 PHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

68.1%

All Games

1358 tracked

75.7%

High Conf.

>65% picks

76.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 71.1% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.7% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score