If ORL visited TOR today, our model would lean Toronto Raptors with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -3.9 points for TOR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-0.2

Net Rating

-4.1

108.9

Offensive Rating

109.6

109.1

Defensive Rating

113.6

96.5

Pace

100.6

ORL (Away) TOR (Home)

Recent Form

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

Head-to-Head History

TOR wins

ORL wins

2026-03-29 ORL 87 @ TOR 139 TOR W

2026-01-30 ORL 120 @ TOR 130 TOR W

2025-12-29 ORL 106 @ TOR 107 TOR W

2025-03-04 ORL 114 @ TOR 113 ORL W

2025-03-02 ORL 104 @ TOR 102 ORL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score