If ORL visited SAS today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -2.6 points for SAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-0.2

Net Rating

-2.8

108.9

Offensive Rating

113.5

109.1

Defensive Rating

116.3

96.5

Pace

100.1

ORL (Away) SAS (Home)

Recent Form

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

SAS wins

ORL wins

2026-02-01 ORL 103 @ SAS 112 SAS W

2025-12-03 ORL 114 @ SAS 112 ORL W

2025-04-01 ORL 116 @ SAS 105 ORL W

2025-02-08 ORL 111 @ SAS 112 SAS W

2024-02-08 ORL 111 @ SAS 127 SAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score