If ORL visited POR today, our model would lean Portland Trail Blazers with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -2.5 points for POR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-0.2

Net Rating

-2.7

108.9

Offensive Rating

111.0

109.1

Defensive Rating

113.7

96.5

Pace

99.5

ORL (Away) POR (Home)

Recent Form

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

POR wins

ORL wins

2025-12-23 ORL 110 @ POR 106 ORL W

2025-11-10 ORL 112 @ POR 115 POR W

2025-01-30 ORL 90 @ POR 119 POR W

2025-01-23 ORL 101 @ POR 79 ORL W

2024-04-01 ORL 103 @ POR 104 POR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score