If ORL visited PHX today, our model would lean Phoenix Suns with a 67.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -2.8 points for PHX at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-0.2

Net Rating

-3.0

108.9

Offensive Rating

114.7

109.1

Defensive Rating

117.7

96.5

Pace

98.3

ORL (Away) PHX (Home)

Recent Form

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

PHX wins

ORL wins

2026-03-31 ORL 111 @ PHX 115 PHX W

2026-02-21 ORL 110 @ PHX 113 PHX W

2024-12-08 ORL 110 @ PHX 115 PHX W

2024-11-18 ORL 109 @ PHX 99 ORL W

2024-01-28 ORL 98 @ PHX 113 PHX W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 67.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score