If ORL visited PHI today, our model would lean Orlando Magic with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -6.1 points for PHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-0.2

Net Rating

-6.3

108.9

Offensive Rating

111.0

109.1

Defensive Rating

117.3

96.5

Pace

98.1

ORL (Away) PHI (Home)

Recent Form

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

Head-to-Head History

PHI wins

ORL wins

2026-01-09 ORL 103 @ PHI 91 ORL W

2025-11-25 ORL 144 @ PHI 103 ORL W

2025-10-27 ORL 124 @ PHI 136 PHI W

2025-01-12 ORL 99 @ PHI 104 PHI W

2024-12-06 ORL 94 @ PHI 102 PHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score