If ORL visited MEM today, our model would lean Orlando Magic with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +4.9 points for MEM at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-0.2

Net Rating

4.7

108.9

Offensive Rating

117.2

109.1

Defensive Rating

112.6

96.5

Pace

103.7

ORL (Away) MEM (Home)

Recent Form

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

MEM 25-57 L8 Avg margin last 5: -25.2

L HOU

L UTA

L DEN

L CLE

L MIL

Head-to-Head History

MEM wins

ORL wins

2026-01-18 ORL 109 @ MEM 126 MEM W

2026-01-15 ORL 118 @ MEM 111 ORL W

2025-02-21 ORL 105 @ MEM 104 ORL W

2024-10-26 ORL 111 @ MEM 124 MEM W

2024-03-30 ORL 88 @ MEM 118 MEM W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score