If ORL visited LAL today, our model would lean Orlando Magic with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +1.4 points for LAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-0.2

Net Rating

1.2

108.9

Offensive Rating

115.0

109.1

Defensive Rating

113.8

96.5

Pace

98.3

ORL (Away) LAL (Home)

Recent Form

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

LAL 57-35 L4 Avg margin last 5: -8.8

L OKC

W HOU

Head-to-Head History

LAL wins

ORL wins

2026-03-21 ORL 105 @ LAL 104 ORL W

2026-02-24 ORL 110 @ LAL 109 ORL W

2025-03-24 ORL 106 @ LAL 118 LAL W

2024-11-21 ORL 119 @ LAL 118 ORL W

2023-11-04 ORL 101 @ LAL 120 LAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score