If ORL visited IND today, our model would lean Orlando Magic with a 57.1% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +2.3 points for IND at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-0.2

Net Rating

2.1

108.9

Offensive Rating

115.4

109.1

Defensive Rating

113.3

96.5

Pace

100.8

ORL (Away) IND (Home)

Recent Form

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

Head-to-Head History

IND wins

ORL wins

2026-03-23 ORL 128 @ IND 126 ORL W

2026-01-04 ORL 127 @ IND 135 IND W

2025-12-31 ORL 112 @ IND 110 ORL W

2025-04-11 ORL 129 @ IND 115 ORL W

2024-11-13 ORL 90 @ IND 94 IND W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 57.1% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score