If ORL visited HOU today, our model would lean Houston Rockets with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +4.8 points for HOU at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-0.2

Net Rating

4.6

108.9

Offensive Rating

114.9

109.1

Defensive Rating

110.3

96.5

Pace

99.0

ORL (Away) HOU (Home)

Recent Form

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

Head-to-Head History

HOU wins

ORL wins

2026-02-26 ORL 113 @ HOU 108 ORL W

2025-11-16 ORL 113 @ HOU 117 HOU W

2025-03-19 ORL 116 @ HOU 108 ORL W

2025-03-10 ORL 84 @ HOU 97 HOU W

2024-04-09 ORL 106 @ HOU 118 HOU W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score