If ORL visited GSW today, our model would lean Orlando Magic with a 63.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +3.4 points for GSW at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-0.2

Net Rating

3.2

108.9

Offensive Rating

114.2

109.1

Defensive Rating

111.0

96.5

Pace

99.4

ORL (Away) GSW (Home)

Recent Form

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

GSW 37-45 L3 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L LAC

L SAC

L LAL

W SAC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

GSW wins

ORL wins

2025-12-22 ORL 97 @ GSW 120 GSW W

2025-11-18 ORL 113 @ GSW 121 GSW W

2025-02-27 ORL 121 @ GSW 115 ORL W

2025-02-03 ORL 99 @ GSW 104 GSW W

2024-03-27 ORL 101 @ GSW 93 ORL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score